According to The Kobeissi Letter, US tariff revenue reached a historic high of $22.3 billion in May 2025, up from $16.5 billion in April. Customs and certain excise taxes have more than doubled in the past two months, with year-to-date collections totaling approximately $67.2 billion (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 2, 2025). This surge in tariffs signals potential inflationary pressures and increased market volatility, which could drive investor interest towards cryptocurrencies as alternative assets. Traders should closely monitor macroeconomic shifts and tariff policy developments for signals that may impact crypto price movements and capital flows.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US goods trade deficit sharply declined by $74.7 billion in April 2025, reaching $87.6 billion—the lowest level since September 2023. Goods imports also dropped by $68.4 billion, hitting $276.1 billion, the lowest since October 2024, and marking the largest monthly decline on record (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 2, 2025). This significant narrowing of the trade deficit could signal cooling demand and potential tightening of USD liquidity, which may impact risk appetite across crypto markets. Traders should monitor the USD's strength as macroeconomic shifts like this can influence Bitcoin and altcoin price trends through changes in capital flows and market sentiment.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a recession could align with several of President Trump's economic objectives, such as reducing US inflation, lowering treasury yields, cutting the trade deficit through tariffs, prompting Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and decreasing oil prices (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 21, 2025). These macroeconomic shifts typically drive risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, often leading to increased volatility in cryptocurrency markets as investors seek alternative assets. Crypto traders should monitor US economic data closely, as recession signals and Fed policy shifts can trigger significant price movements in Bitcoin and altcoins, especially with rising demand for decentralized stores of value during periods of economic uncertainty.

According to Richard Teng, Bitcoin has historically shown resilience to macroeconomic shifts, exemplified by its recovery after dipping below $20,000 amid 2022's Fed rate hikes.

According to Michaël van de Poppe, despite the significant underperformance of altcoin markets, with most altcoins down 80-90%, current macroeconomic shifts suggest a favorable environment for a risk-on trading strategy. This implies that traders might consider increasing their exposure to altcoins, anticipating a potential price recovery. Source: Twitter (@CryptoMichNL).